After the sharp decline of steel market in 2005, how many people are optimistic about the operation of steel market in 2006? How many people have confidence in 2006 because of the release of steel production capacity in 2005? However, the market is like an elf. You can inadvertently perform a wonderful plot.
In 2006, a year beyond most people's expectation, the market price continued to strengthen in the first half of the year, and it was extremely stable in the second half of the year. At the end of the year, you will find that after the loss in 2005, you easily achieved the lost profits in 2006.
We lament the impermanence of the market and the unpredictability of the market. However, we should also say that the market is not without rules to follow and is not uncertain. As long as we are good at analysis, timely grasp, move according to the situation, and bold in decision-making, we can certainly stand the tide of the market and be proud of the Jianghu.
2007 will be an important adjustment year for China's economic development. After years of rapid economic development, the Chinese government has clearly not listed economic growth as the first-class assessment index. According to the 11th five year plan, China will accelerate the pace of structural adjustment, change the mode of economic growth, pay attention to environmental protection and strive to reduce energy consumption in the next few years. Therefore, it can be seen that in 2007, the structural adjustment of China's iron and steel industry will be further strengthened, backward production capacity will continue to be eliminated, and the supply and demand situation of the steel market will be further optimized.
Although China will increase economic restructuring, maintaining rapid economic growth is still the top priority in 2007. In determining the eight tasks for 2007, the central economic working conference still put maintaining rapid economic development first. Obviously, "sound and fast" is the focus of economic development and macro-control in 2007. Under the guidance of this policy, we need not worry about the possible decline of economic growth in 2007. Looking at the newly started projects in 2006, we can see that in 2007, China's fixed asset investment will still maintain a considerable intensity, and the support for the steel market will continue.
The international economy is still at its peak. Although the U.S. economy declined in 2006, the recent data analysis of the U.S. economy shows that the U.S. housing market has begun to stabilize. Driven by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the increase of exports, the U.S. economy has shown a stable trend. From the perspective of the overall situation of the world economy, the good performance of the European and Chinese economies is offsetting the impact of the weak U.S. economy. In 2007, the world economy will still show good performance, and will further promote the steady development of the world steel industry. In terms of the share of China's steel exports to other countries in 2006, the proportion of China's steel exports to the United States has declined. The European Union has become the second largest steel export market in China, while the United States has dropped to the third.
At present, the international steel market still maintains a high price level, among which the price difference between the EU, the United States and China is relatively large, which will continue to promote the large-scale export of Chinese steel products from a commercial perspective. With the good development of the international economy, the price level of the international steel market is expected to remain higher than that of the Chinese market for quite a long time. Therefore, the traction effect of the international market on the Chinese steel market will not disappear in 2007, and this situation is not likely to change fundamentally unless China's domestic demand is greatly released.
At present, many people worry about the steel market in 2007 from the production capacity and the possible friction of international trade, which is completely understandable. However, from a large economic perspective, because China's economy is still growing at a high speed, and the road of industrialization and urbanization is still very long, which determines that the demand intensity for steel materials will still be very high. At the same time, the peak of investment growth in China's steel industry has passed. At present, the investment growth rate is declining, and the later stage of production capacity release gradually enters a stable stage, from the market in 2006 In terms of good performance, it is unnecessary to be overly pessimistic in 2007. In terms of international trade friction, in fact, since China's reform and opening up, China's exports of various commodities have been accompanied by foreign anti-dumping boycotts. In the late 1990s, China's iron and steel products have also been subject to large-scale anti-dumping sanctions such as the United States. However, the market naturally has its strong adjustment ability, and China's international trade has gone through one after another After the ups and downs, today, in the world still maintain a strong vitality.
It must be noted that there are still many uncertain factors affecting the market, but many years of changes in the steel market show us that there is no one year where there are only good and no bad factors, and there is no one year where there is only a rise and no decline. The rise and fall are twin brothers, complementary and concomitant. From the trend of steel market in the second half of 2006, China is pleased to see that the production concept of domestic steel enterprises has changed qualitatively, the capacity of production control has been further enhanced, and the sales policy of steel enterprises has been more stable. With the continuous elimination of backward production capacity, the phenomenon of low-end fake and inferior products disturbing the market has been further reduced, and the health of the steel market is significantly improved.
Thousands of sails pass, and hundreds of Ke compete for the flow. In 2007, we have reason to expect the steel market to be more brilliant. (BI run stone MRI Analyst)
